President Trump's claim that America has a "virtually unlimited" munitions stockpile and could fight a war "forever," could soon be tested as counterattacks target military bases and U.S. Embassies across the Middle East in what has become a rapidly-widening conflict.
Why it matters: Reporting suggests that the U.S. stockpile and that of key allies, such as Israel and Gulf nations, are dwindling faster than production can replace the weapons.
- The problem is particularly notable given that other countries are considering whether to jump into the war.
What they're saying: "The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better," the president wrote on Truth Social Monday night.
- "At the highest end, we have a good supply, but are not where we want to be. Much additional high grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries," he added.
Context: It was not immediately clear what the president meant by "medium and upper medium grade" munitions.
- The White House referred Axios to the president's Tuesday comments at the White House.
- The Pentagon referred Axios to a post that says the U.S. has "everything it needs to execute any mission at the time and place of the President's choosing and on any timeline."
Zoom in: Before the Iran strike, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine reportedly said stockpiling munitions could be a crucial limiting factor in a potential extended attack on the U.S.
- Israel's stockpile is currently bolstering American defenses, but its supplies were already low after years of regional conflict.
Threat level: U.S. interceptor stockpiles, which are used to stop incoming missiles, are also dwindling.
- Iran fired about 400 missiles and over 800 drones in the first two days of strikes, according to government reports.
- Many were intercepted, but sustained barrages could strain Western defenses. The exact number of U.S. air-defense interceptors is classified.
Trump has downplayed Iran's ability to keep the pace of missiles going, saying Tuesday that Iran is "running out of launchers," but will continue firing for a "while."
Zoom out: Even before the strikes, the Pentagon made procuring more munitions a key spending priority, per Forecast International's Defense & Security Monitor.
- The 2025 reconciliation bill included roughly $25 billion to buy munitions and increase production. New deals with defense contractors Lockheed Martin and RTX to boost missile production are also in place — including making sure that the U.S. receives over 1,000 long-range Tomahawk missiles a year.
Thought bubble from Axios Future of Defense author Colin Demarest: Iran is flooding its neighbors with missiles, drones and decoys that demand reactions from Western air defenses, some of which are worth millions of dollars a pop and take months to replenish.
- An outgunned Tehran knows this — and is playing an existential numbers game.
Go deeper: Israel bombs council choosing Iran's next supreme leader, official says
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